College Basketball Articles
Scouting 101: The Five-Tool Basketball Player
Posted by tjarks on November 22nd, 2010 under College Basketball, Philosophy, Scouting
Basketball can be thought of as live-action chess. Each side has five pieces (ideally) moving in unity with the goal of shooting a ball into a basket. The offense tries to create a situation where a player can get an open look at the basket, while the defense tries to prevent the same situation.
The difference between the NBA game and the college game is the types of strategies that are employed.
There are over 4,000 D1 basketball players. In a given year, maybe 30-35 of them (the top 1%) find a spot in the NBA, while perhaps 15 more could have found one if they had not stayed in school.
By virtue of being in that top 1% percent, these players are invariably bigger, faster and more skilled than their peers.
So while the court remains the same size, the amount of available space on it is greatly restricted in the professional game. Television, because it is a 2D representation of a 3D environment, can’t represent the court’s size with complete accuracy. When I sat three rows behind the visitors bench, it was the first thing I noticed. There just didn’t seem like there was enough room on the court.
A viewing angle you can’t get from the TV. One of the main reasons NBA teams still emphasize seeing a player live.
Because defenses can recover much more quickly at the pro level, a premium is placed on the ability of one individual to “create” a shot-opportunity. There’s a myriad of ways it can be done, all with different levels of efficiency depending on the player — from dribbling past the defender or shooting over the top of them to forcing other defenders to leave one of your teammates unguarded.
Since the NBA is a game of individual match-ups, to return to the chess analogy, most strategy occurs at the level of selecting the “pieces”.
In choosing combinations of players to put on the court, coaches try to create situations where a “mis-match” occurs. The goal being to have at least one player with a decided advantage over his defender, forcing the defense to over-compensate.
Before the NBA draft, prospects undergo a exhaustive screening process (scouting) to determine whether they can be an attacker on offense (a creator of mis-matches) or can be attacked on defense.
Teams poke and prod prospects to rigorously determine their athletic ability and physical dimensions at the annual combine. They then bring them in for individual and group work-outs to test their skill level — from the accuracy of their jump-shot to their ability to dribble through traffic.
The reason people, especially fans, often make mistakes trying to determine the ability of a player to transition from college to the NBA is there isn’t a universal framework that can be applied to every prospect.
Professional baseball scouts, who have had a head-start of more than 50 years in developing scouting techniques, look for five different “tools” when evaluating position players — hitting for average, hitting for power, base-running skills and speed, throwing ability, and fielding abilities.
The prototype five-tool CF.
The more tools the player has, the more likely he will be a major-league contributor. In the scout’s mind, all five tools exist on a pendulum. If a player is lacking in one tool than he needs to balance it out by excelling in another.
Basketball players can be evaluated in a similar fashion, but the five tools are a bit different:
1) The ability to create a shot:
The hardest, and therefore most valuable, tool to master. The vast majority of All-Star caliber players (the top 10% of the NBA talent pool — 40 of about 400) are guys who can get themselves a good look at the basket and convert it efficiently.
Players selected to one of three All-NBA teams, the elite of elite, are usually the ones who can create those looks in the paint and as close to the basket as possible, where they are inherently easier to convert.
A good example is the Mavericks’ Dirk Nowitzki, who combines a textbook shooting motion that he releases somewhere between eight-to-nine feet off the ground (when you take into account his vertical leap and his fade-away over-the-head form). His shot exists on a plane the vast majority of players can’t reach. Only a tiny handful, like a Lamar Odom or a Shawn Marion, have the combination of height and athleticism necessary to properly contest his shot.
Kenyon Martin is an excellent defender of conventional power forwards. But at only 6’9, he can barely even bother Dirk’s shot.
The vast majority of teams can’t defend him with one player; he can position himself at a spot on the floor and shoot over the top of the out-stretched arms of his defender. Either he makes the shot or he doesn’t; there is almost nothing a smaller defender can do to affect the outcome.
**By moving his game closer to the basket as he has gotten older, from attempting five 3′s a game at 24 to only 1.5 today, he has become a much more effective player. While he is an excellent long-range shooter who once won the 3-point shoot-out during All-Star weekend, it’s significantly easier to exploit a double-team from the paint than from the 3-point line.
2) The ability to defend a position.
While there are technically five different positions on the court, their roles have become increasingly interchangeable in the modern game. There are really only three types of players — points (the guy who initiates the offense and sets other people up), wings (the guys who stand around the perimeter and focus on scoring) and posts (the guys who stand around the lane).
The vast majority of players in the NBA are in the league because they have the physical capability to defend on of the three essential positions. Unless they are an elite offensive player, they had better be able to competently defend someone.
That’s where many great college players fall short in the NBA. Adam Morrison wasn’t nearly as effective on offense against NBA-caliber athletes as he was playing in the WCC; for the first time in his life, his offensive game wasn’t enough to compensate for his frail 6’8 200 pound frame and relatively slow foot-speed.
When NBA players saw Morrison assigned to guard them, they felt disrespected.
The most important physical characteristic on defense is wingspan. Great defensive players, from Scottie Pippen to Hakeem Olajuwon, almost always have longer arms than their body, which allows them to play a step further away from the offensive player (to anticipate and stop a drive) while still contesting their jumper. Shawn Marion is only 6’7, but a near seven-foot wingspan lets him guard much taller players.
The more positions a player can defend, the more valuable they are. If a point has the size to guard wings, his team can play an undersized scoring guard (one of the most common types of players) and have him defend the opposing point. Without Jason Kidd (a 6’4 point who can guard much taller perimeter players), the Mavericks would have a difficult time giving Jason Terry or J.J. Barea, good scorers who stand only 6’2 and 6’0, playing time.
And since the paint is the most valuable area on the floor, a big man who plays exceptional defense is much more valuable than a similarly defensive-minded guard. Orlando got away with playing Hedo Turkoglu, a defensive sieve, because he could shuttle players into Dwight Howard, the league’s leading shot-blocker. Hedo had a defensive rating of 104 (allowing 104 points per 100 possessions) in Orlando; the next season in Toronto, with Andrea Bargnani as his center, it ballooned to an awful 113.
Dwight cleaning up Hedo’s mess.
3) The ability to shoot jumpers.
When a player doesn’t have the ball in his hands, the guy defending him plays help-side defense and assists the rest of the team. The more effective a shooter, the closer the defender has to play him off the ball. If he can’t shoot, than his defender can feel free to ignore him on the perimeter, forcing the offense into a 4-on-5 situation.
If you play farther than 10 feet from the basket, you had better be able to hit an open jump shot. Texas basketball fans can recall the gruesome offense of the 2009 team that started two guards — Dogus Balbay and Justin Mason — who couldn’t accurately throw a ball into the ocean.
That’s why Miami was so obsessed with adding outside shooting over the off-season. The first two Boston/Miami games show how hard it is to score against an top-notch defense with two non-shooters (Arroyo and Anthony) on the floor, even with three of the league’s top 10 scorers.
What’s the point in having guys who command double teams when they have to pass to this guy?
Not even James, Wade and Bosh can consistently win 3-on-5 match-ups.
4) The ability to rebound and 5) The ability to pass the ball.
For most players, passing and rebounding are inversely related skills. Typically, passing skill increases as you move down the height continuum (from center to point guard) while rebounding increases as you move up it.
Players who can flip this trend — point guards who can rebound (Rajon Rondo) or centers who can pass (Pau Gasol) — are incredibly valuable. A point who can rebound a miss saves valuable time in starting the fast break, while a center who can pass can take advantage of his ability to see over the entire defense, creating much easier passing angles.
And just as in baseball, five-tool basketball players are a rare commodity.
The ideal five-tool point guard is Deron Williams, at 6’3 200 with a 6’6 wingspan. At shooting guard, it’s Kobe Bryant. At small forward, Carmelo Anthony. At power forward it’s Lamar Odom and at center it’s Pau Gasol.
When Kobe is feeling generous with the ball, this incredibly skilled trio plays the game “the way it was meant to be played.“
** It’s no coincidence the Lakers have three five-tool players. Which is not to say that each of those players is the best at his position. For example, LeBron is a much superior defender, rebounder and passer than Carmelo, which makes up for his still shaky outside jumper. But because he is not a great outside shooter, he has a more difficult time playing off the ball, and it is harder to construct a team around him.
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tjarks
jc25 said:
November 22nd, 2010 at 12:34 pm
Great stuff, tjarks. Would be an interesting read to see how advanced metrics ties to your “5 tool players.” – i.e., where are the undervalued aspects of the game.
Good write-up on the Horns. I wonder if you’ll see defenses start to adjust to TT as the season progresses. He’s got the raw talent, but if you start to funnel your offense away from TT and conversely just hack him whenever he has an open look, his effectiveness may decrease. Hamilton is an excellent passer…when he wants to be. You’ll see him drop about one dime a game that has a “did you see that?!” rating. And about 3-4 shots that make you go in completely the opposite direction.
tjarks said:
November 22nd, 2010 at 12:58 pm
My biggest concern right now is the Balbay/Joseph combination in the back-court. Joseph is supposed to be an excellent outside shooter, yet the games I saw him play, he looked very hesitant to pull the trigger. Maybe that’s just freshman nerves, but if he’s not going to shoot, it’s the Mason/Dogus disaster all over again and we’re depending on J’Covan to save the season.
I’ve been trying to get into all these advanced metrics this season. Some of them are definitely very useful (like usage rating), but the main problem I have with them is that people are just transplanting a baseball-mentality towards basketball, when they are entirely different games. Basketball is a zero-sum game, there are only so many shots and touches to go around, so it’s a lot harder to assign responsibility to a player without understanding how they’re being used in a scheme.
Like if you put the three best hitters in the game on the same baseball team, they’d be dominant. But in basketball, as we’re seeing in Miami, they have to adjust their games (and statistics) to the presence of different players around them.
I don’t think you can say Player A has a 20.0 PER and Player B has a 17.0 PER, therefore Player A > Player B, like you can with VORP and Win Shares in baseball.
If you looked at J’Covan’s shooting percentages in a vacuum, you’d think he was an average to below-average shooter. But in reality he’s a 4rth/5th option mis-cast as a 2nd/3rd option, which makes him take a lot of low-percentage shots he shouldn’t be taking, but UT has no one else on their roster to take them.
It’s a pretty interesting topic; it probably merits a post of its own at some point.
Barking Carnival | NBA Scouting 101: The Five-Tool Basketball Player (And A Look at Texas’ NBA Prospects) said:
November 22nd, 2010 at 4:28 pm
[...] For my take on our NBA prospects’ prospects, head on over to Get Buckets. [...]
Bobby Time said:
November 22nd, 2010 at 8:27 pm
tjarks, good post, man. Do you have any recommendations for websites where the advances in basketball analytics are detailed and explained (and perhaps where the newest tools are uncovered – I have seen quotes out of the Mavs and Rockets that they don’t want all their methods made public)?
Tristan has exceeded my expectations, and Cory has done the opposite. But, we’re only a few games into their college careers. Can’t wait to see how they do the rest of the season. Is it just me, or does Cory look like Avery Bradley on TV? The walk and undershirt and light skin and blank facial expression?
Not as high as you on Jordan at the next level. I think unless he gets much quicker and stronger, he’s going to be a spot player. He doesn’t look like he knows how to play away from the ball, but he can’t get much space for himself when he tries to take someone off the dribble, either. I’ve read people on Longhorn blogs give him credit for his “junk ball” game, but as low-percentage as those shots are in college, they’ll be even worse in the NBA. Maybe he needs to be a specialist, but Mike Miller would shoot Jordan straight out of the gym. Not trying to be too critical, he’s off to a great start for the Horns, and he’s fun to watch when his shot’s falling, just don’t think he is explosive enough, or has a varied enough offensive game, to be a starter on the wing in the league – those guys are freaks.
In my opinion, the best thing that J’Covan has to offer is superior instincts. Last year, he was frequently a step ahead of the other players in the game, teammates included, and was able to get the ball to places his physical ability might suggest he couldn’t. Playing chess, to bring it back to your original thesis. Is there a way that translates to a spot at the end of an NBA bench? His tangible skills don’t seem strong enough, otherwise.
tjarks said:
November 22nd, 2010 at 8:49 pm
Bobby Time — That’s one of the biggest problems with advanced metrics in basketball right now — “garbage in, garbage out”. Especially in defensive statistics, where the inputs — especially steals — really don’t have a huge relationship to how good a job a player does. Teams like the Mavs and Rockets track a lot of things (defender stopping a 1-on-1 move) that the NBA doesn’t.
I can see where the doubts about Hamilton’s game, especially his athleticism and ability to beat guys off the dribble, but I’m still a fan. He’s a 37.3% career 3-point shooter, which doesn’t count the number of ridiculously difficult 3′s he’s taken in his short career — another stat I’d love to get my hands on is his percentage on open shots, which I’d guess is pretty high. That skill alone would get him on NBA roster, not counting his height and overall skill level. Definitely a high risk/high reward player who will have Barnes and Texas fans tearing their hair out all year.
J’Covan definitely has a good feel for the game, he just needs to tone his act down. He’ll never be a defensive stopper, so the key stat to watch for him is his assist: turnover ratio. If he makes it in the NBA, it will be as a back-up point guard who plays a professional ten minutes and stretches the floor — i.e. Eric Maynor. He’s got a looong way to go to that obviously.
The best sites I’ve found are 82games.com and basketball-reference.com. If you run into any others on your travels through the interwebs, feel free to share them.
lowdenswain said:
November 22nd, 2010 at 11:49 pm
Sorry, I call BS on the TT “nearly 40″ vertical”. That puts his head at the rim. I’ve seen both home games and just haven’t seen it…………….yet.
Great stuff. Enjoyed it.
tjarks said:
November 23rd, 2010 at 4:44 pm
Yea that might have been a slightly hyperbolic statement; he definitely doesn’t have Vince Carter ups lol.
I really wish there was somewhere that kept track of wingspans and vertical leaps, the information is out there but poorly sourced and organized, and it’s pretty important info to know about a player, as important as height and weight.
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h-man said:
December 24th, 2010 at 1:14 am
On what planet is Carmelo Anthony a better five-tool/more complete player than Lebron James? Lebron shoots above league average from three, which means he is significant threat off the ball just for his 3-point shooting, while Carmelo has always been significantly below average as a 3-point shooting, and only uses his slightly-above-average long-two shooting when in isolations, where his fit with his teammates doesn’t matter.
Also Carmelo is way below average as a passer (for a SF), while James is one of the best passing forwards of all time.
B said:
December 24th, 2010 at 10:49 am
I agree with h-man, but I’ll go into each tool a bit deeper – which skill does Carmelo have better than Lebron James? Let’s look at each category 1 by 1.
A) I think they’re both equal in this respect, but you might give it to Melo if you must. They both get tons of space for their shots, because of their athleticism and because of the fear of being driven and dunked on. Lebron just doesn’t really make the shots he creates for himself, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t create them.
B) Lebron’s a better defender. Easily.
C) Carmelo is the better jump shooter from 2, and they both suck from 3. Lebron is a below average 3 point shooter in the NBA, the stats clearly agree with that. However, I also agree that Carmelo, though, is the worse three point shooter (especially in the past two years).
D) /E) Obviously Lebron…..by a lot.
So here’s my take: Carmelo is not significantly better than Lebron at anything except a smoother long 2…which is the least efficient shot in the game. I also question whether Carmelo’s a 5 tool player when he shows such little effort in many of his games in defense and rebounding, two of your core tools. His passing isn’t that great either, although he’s not bad. I believe a better prototypical 5 tool SF would be Durant, except he needs to pass just a little bit more before he can get to that level. An in-prime Paul Pierce would probably be the best example in this era, though, of a SF who could do anything and everything to win you a game – therefore, a 5-tool player.
tjarks said:
December 25th, 2010 at 11:49 am
A prime PP was a five-tool SF definitely, as is KD now. I never said ‘Melo was a better player than LeBron; I specifically said he wasn’t for the same reasons the commenters mentioned.
LBJ is a very streaky shooter; he doesn’t have a very technically sound release and it looks like he likes to fade-away as he shoots and land off-balance.
As someone with a similar jumper, it’s really really hard to be consistent with it b/c you are putting yourself at a disadvantage in terms of “launching parabolas” (as Dirk’s Mr. Miyagi — Holger Gerschwindner — calls the idea of shooting jumpers).
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no it all said:
March 23rd, 2011 at 2:35 pm
Really? Carmelo is a 5-tool guy?
Explain who he defends? Explain if he defends?
Show me one pass he has ever made?
Carmelo is a one tool guy. He is a scorer. that is all.
tjarks said:
April 8th, 2011 at 1:30 am
He can defend and he can pass — just look at the 2009 WCF where he out-played Kobe most of the way through. The frustrating thing is that he just doesn’t. Hopefully he’ll respond well to the increased pressure in NYC and live up to his potential.
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Pascal said:
October 25th, 2011 at 3:53 pm
Thumbs up for that post, great stuff! And really easy to understand to non-basketball-experts…
Anyways, I just can repeat the doubt about Carmelo being the best 5-way-SF in the league! He wasnt when you wrote the article, he isnt now and will never be until he got brainwashed maybe. He’s got the tools to be a good defender with his size and bulky frame. Rebounding is not a problem for him, also his defense was really good against the Lakers back in the POs. But if you don’t show it consistently, it’s not seen as a true quality of a player. Just flashed of capabilities are not enough.
So LeBron James might be the best 5-way-SF of ALL TIMES right behind Scottie Pippen. He is just a better jump shot away from claiming that title. A younger Paul Pierce is also a good example for an all-around SF. So was a healthy Tracy McGrady, or also Joe Johnson and Andre Iguodala if you take them as SFs. Latter one just lacking of a jump shot like James.
tjarks said:
October 25th, 2011 at 4:36 pm
That’s a fair point. Carmelo has not consistently displayed those skills. I’m an optimistic person; I like to believe that people will live up to their potential.
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227's YouTube Chili' Duke Blue Devils » Blog Archive » NBA Draft Toolbox: Austin Rivers Leads Strong Duke Prospect List said:
November 25th, 2011 at 6:01 pm
[...] of five tools as well: shot-creating, defending a position, an outside shot, passing and rebounding. Here’s a more in-depth look at this idea. However, very few elite young basketball players play consistent defense, so projecting defense is [...]
Swedish Meatballs Recipe said:
December 14th, 2011 at 3:16 am
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NBA Draft Toolbox: Baylor’s Depth, Zone Hiding Talent Of Perry Jones, Quincy Miller – - OptaVision3D Projectors | www.optavision3d.comOptaVision3D Projectors | www.optavision3d.com said:
January 25th, 2012 at 6:40 am
[...] case: A five-tool 6’10+ player with versatility to play inside and outside on both sides of the ball — [...]
NBA Draft Toolbox: Andre Drummond Is The 0.1% – - OptaVision3D Projectors | www.optavision3d.comOptaVision3D Projectors | www.optavision3d.com said:
February 3rd, 2012 at 8:32 am
[...] in the low post as well as the ability to pass out of the high post. He has the potential to be a five-tool athlete at 6’11, 270+. There’s no ceiling to how good he could become, which is also his [...]
NBA Draft Toolbox: Tony Wroten Learning How To Use Best gifts At Washington | BestSouvenir said:
February 22nd, 2012 at 9:37 am
[...] case: Five-tool 6’6+ sharpened ensure with dunk-contest distance athleticism: Vince [...]
NCAA Tournament Player Watch: East Regional NBA Prospects Include Myck Kabongo, Jared Sullinger – - OptaVision3D Projectors | www.optavision3d.comOptaVision3D Projectors | www.optavision3d.com said:
March 15th, 2012 at 3:54 pm
[...] he is: A well-rounded and athletic 6’4. 200-pound combo guard, Waiters is a five-tool player who can create his own shot off the bounce, shoot from the perimeter, run the point and defend both [...]
Leif said:
April 12th, 2012 at 4:48 am
Have read several of your pieces tjarks, and I just wanted to say I thought them all very good. Nice job