NBA Articles
Scouting 102: The Importance of “Fit”
Posted by tjarks on January 28th, 2011 under NBA, Philosophy, Scouting
Take out just one piece and the whole thing falls apart.
Ideally every NBA starter would be a “five-tool” player; they would be able to create their own shot, defend their position, shoot, pass and rebound. It would certainly make a GM’s job easier.
But in the real world, there are very, very few basketball players without a single hole in their game. From a suspect jumper to an inability to move their feet on the perimeter or a shaky handle, almost every player has a wart or two.
As a result, “fit” — how well players complement each other on the court — is as important as talent in constructing a team.
Building a championship team is like assembling a jigsaw puzzle — sometimes two pieces, no matter how impressive individually, just don’t fit well together.
To win an NBA title, a team must survive a two-month gauntlet of four best-of-seven series, with the quality of competition increasing almost exponentially each round. As a result, rotations usually shrink as teams advance; the smallest weaknesses in a player’s game can be magnified and exploited by a quality opponent.
The highest level of basketball in the world hands-down.
You want at least one shot-creator — a guy who can “create” an easy look at the basket for himself and others off the dribble — in the back-court. Surrounding him should be two good three-point shooters, because without outside shooting a defense can clog the middle of the court and render even the most dangerous offensive player impotent.
Up-front, one of your bigs should be a good jump-shooter; this creates driving lanes to the basket by forcing his man to leave the paint and defend him on the perimeter. Jump-shooting bigs “open up the floor” and ease congestion in the paint.
A “stretch 4″ is the best complement to a low-post game — the easiest way to score on a basketball court and a must-have for a championship contender.
If you’re over 6’10, learn to shoot 3′s. NBA teams will pay a fortune for this skill, even if it’s the only thing you can do … Steve Novak.
** Stretch 4′s have become all the rage in NBA circles. Rashard Lewis got his absurd $120 million contract from Orlando primarily because of his ability to be 6’11 and to shoot 3′s at a 40% clip at the same time. **
A good fit allows guys to play their game without getting in each other’s way; a great fit maximizes each player’s skill and minimizes their weaknesses.
There’s no better example of how a great fit can alter the trajectory of both a player’s career and a team’s season than in Dallas. The Mavericks talked up the final non-guaranteed year of Erick Dampier’s massive contract for years; so when they turned the “Dust Chip” into Tyson Chandler in late August, there was a palpable sense of disappointment in the Metroplex.
But while he had a disappointing year in Charlotte, battling injuries and averaging only 22 minutes a game, he walked into a perfect situation in Dallas.
Because Dirk, the Mavericks’ other big man, is such an efficient scorer from any spot on the floor, Dallas doesn’t need any offense from the center position. Which is great for Chandler, whose only offensive move is dunking the ball as hard as he can.
Tyson Chandler was a 6’8 eighth grader.
In Dallas, Chandler only has to concentrate on defense and rebounding. One of the best shot-blockers in the NBA at 7’1 235, he has the foot-speed to guard perimeter-oriented big men as well as the strength to shut down low-post scorers. He can guard every type of big man, which works well because Dirk can’t really guard any type.
When he is paired with Chandler and Shawn Marion, two of the most versatile defensive forwards in the NBA, he can always be hid on the other team’s worst front-court scorer.
The more holes in your franchise player’s game, the better the players you need to put around him to win a championship. A prime Dirk Nowitzki couldn’t win a championship playing with Steve Nash, Mike Finley, Antawn Jamison and Antoine Walker; a prime Tim Duncan won a championship with an over-the-hill David Robinson (he averaged 8/8 in 2003), a too-young Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, Stephen Jackson and Speedy Claxton.
** The ’03 Spurs have to be one of the least talented NBA champions in recent memory. Take a look at that roster; that team is not making a Conference Finals in 2011. **
Basketball teams tend to have several general types of “fit” problems:
: Playing two non-shooters together:
Justin Mason + DJ Augustin = Elite Eight. Mason + Dogus Balbay = First round exit.
Three of the the 2010 Texas Longhorns’ starters (Dexter Pittman, Damion James and Avery Bradley) were drafted last year. But because the other two — Mason and Balbay — couldn’t shoot from outside of ten feet, defenses did not guard them on the perimeter. Their men sagged in the lane, neutralizing all of Texas’ offensive talent.
No one can win 3-on-5 match-ups consistently.
** This is why the Orlando Magic began looking to trade Marcin Gortat, the Polish seven-footer, almost as soon as they matched the Dallas Mavericks’ contract offer for him last summer. Since neither Gortat nor Howard can hit a 15-jumper, it’s almost impossible to play both of them at the same time. As a result, Orlando was paying $34 million dollars to a player averaging only 15 minutes a game.
Now that he is getting more consistent playing time in Phoenix with a point guard who can get him easy baskets in Steve Nash, his PER has jumped from 13.7 to 16.8. He was worth his contract, just not in Orlando. **
: Playing scorers with no distributors:
Go stand over there. Get out of my way.
One of the primary reasons why the Detroit Pistons traded Chauncey Billups was so that they could play Rodney Stuckey “on the ball” more.
** To play with the ball in your hands, you need to be a good shot-creator. To play without the ball, you need to be a good jump-shooter. One of the biggest transitions guards make is moving either on or off the ball; it’s two different skill-sets entirely. **
But Stuckey, despite Detroit’s optimism, never developed into a point. He only averages 4.5 assists a game despite a very high usage rating (25.2).
Even worse, Rip Hamilton’s game — running through a maze of picks and curling off of them for jumpers — depends on a point guard’s ability to consistently deliver the ball into his shot-pocket. In his six seasons with Billups he had an average PER of 18.2. After Billups left, it plummeted to 16.9, and he’s had a 14.9 the last two seasons.
By keeping the same team but switching Allen Iverson (scorer) with Billups (pure point), the Pistons went from the 6th highest rated offense in the NBA to the 23rd.
** This is in no way a knock on AI, one of the greatest players of the modern era. But asking him to do something he can’t do — distribute the ball and not look for his own shot — isn’t fair to him or the team. **
: Playing two guys who defend the same position:
The Anti-Voltron.
Josh Smith, at 6’9 225, and Al Horford, at 6’10 240, are both excellent defensive players. But neither has the size to handle traditional centers like Dwight Howard.
In the regular season, where very few teams have seven-footers with low-post games, this weakness can be hidden. Atlanta, because they started two athletic 6’9+ forwards who each averaged over a block a game, had the 13th rated defense in the league last season.
But when they faced Dwight Howard’s Magic in the second round, they were in a lot of trouble. Howard shot a preposterous 27-32 from the field as Orlando demolished the Hawks in a four-game sweep. Their average margin of victory in the series was over 30 points.
** This article has a more in-depth look at the Hawks’ problems and what they can do to fix them. **
Of course, the obsession with “fit” can go too far, especially in the draft. After all, it made more sense to pair a shot-blocking center with Clyde Drexler than a ball-dominant shooting guard …
Here are a few more examples of a “bad fit” making NBA teams less than the sum of their parts:
: New Orleans: Similar to the Hawks, the Hornets’ play two undersized big men — Emeka Okafor (6’10 252) and David West (6’9 240). So while they are an excellent defensive team — rated 3rd in the NBA — they won’t be able to get by any of the Western playoff teams with multiple seven-footers (LA, Dallas, Portland).
: Golden State: Neither Stephen Curry (6’3 175) nor Monta Ellis (6’3 185) has the size to guard the typical NBA shooting guard at 6’6 200. As a result, Golden State is at a defensive disadvantage in the back-court on a nightly basis.
: Memphis: Both Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are offensively-oriented big men. Neither player has the foot-speed to guard perimeter oriented big-men or the athleticism to guard the rim, and the Grizzlies’ lack of interior defense is the primary reason why they are currently outside of the playoff picture in the West.
: Phoenix: With the cap room they freed up by letting Amare walk, the Suns signed role players who need the ball in their hands to be effective (Turkoglu) and can’t shoot 3′s (Childress), absolutely the worst pieces to put around Steve Nash.
: Philadelphia: Took Evan Turner #2, a ball-dominant perimeter player, when they already had two (Andre Iguodala and Jrue Holiday) blocking his path while they desperately needed a big man.
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tjarks
PrimeTime said:
January 28th, 2011 at 10:38 am
Bowie over MJ reference at the end.
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Полярные Зори said:
December 25th, 2011 at 5:07 pm
1
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